Update 1 May 2023
This month's market update looks at the global economy in the first quarter and supply impacts. The long and variable lags of the aggressive policy tightening in the past year became very clear, but not where it was expected. The ramifications of the recent banking failures is yet to be fully understood. There remains considerable uncertainty surrounding the extent to which the recent turmoil will impact investor sentiment and activity. The labour market remains tight.
The NSW and Australian Governments have announced an additional $742 million to further support primary industry, businesses, rural landholders, councils and residents affected by catastrophic flooding across NSW which began in February 2022. The Rural Landholders Grant provides funding to help storm and flood-affected rural landholders and aquaculture farmers in eligible local government areas (LGAs) recover. See below for more.
The ATO is hosting a free 60-minute webinar and a series of webinars on the benefits of small businesses adopting eInvoicing. E-Invoicing is the new, safer, faster way to send and receive invoices directly through your system or software – ready to be approved and paid. Register now for the next session 1:00 pm, Wednesday 31 May 2023.
If you start making money from your online content, you’ll have income to declare, and you’ll need to consider whether you’re in business. If you are, or you want to start your own business, it’s important you know what income you need to report, the deductions you can claim, and what registrations you may need.
The Northern Rivers holds regular Community Events. See what's on and keep up to date on all the fantastic opportunities available and help to support local.
A reminder, there are some important lodgement dates to note this month.
The WD Nicholls Team
The headline returns on equities in March do not represent the full turmoil that gripped markets and changed the outlook for growth and policy rates. The MSCI World Index gained 2.6% over the month, while emerging market equities returned 2.2%. The Global Aggregate bond index moved by a surprising 3.2%. And all of this is against the backdrop of a mini-banking crisis (total returns in local currency).
Tensions are high. Stakes are higher. The global economy picked up momentum in the first quarter as the supply side drags continued to fade and energy prices fell. Economic indicators surprised to the upside and the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index rose in nearly every market in February. Better growth meant more persistent inflation pressure and central banks stepped up the hawkish rhetoric to a point. That point was the collapse of three banks in the U.S. and one in Europe. The long and variable lags of the aggressive policy tightening in the past year became very clear, but not where it was expected. The ramifications of the recent banking failures is yet to be fully understood. The flow on effects in the U.S. commercial real estate market will slowly come to light. What is known is that banks will be very closely looking at their balance sheet and liquidity needs to avoid the same fate. This may lead to falling lending growth and a more restrictive credit environment that curtails economic activity.
The rising risks around financial stability and the realisation that the economy is still sensitive to policy rates led to a change in tack from central bankers. Even as inflation is still high, the growth outlook is much weaker and the rate of inflation should continue to fall. The peak in policy rates is now much closer for the major central banks who have moved to a phase of hyper data dependence.
The most likely trajectory for the global economy is sub-trend growth with possible recession in the U.S. and Europe. However, there is some divergence as China’s outlook improves, Europe is still benefiting from the fading supply side drags but the U.S. is now facing higher recession risks. While recession risks have risen for the U.S., it is still anticipated to be relatively mild with little excesses in the real economy and few signs of a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis. There remains considerable uncertainty surrounding the extent to which the recent turmoil will impact investor sentiment and activity. Higher uncertainty is an argument against extreme positioning between or within assets. Our view is that investors are best served by focusing on quality in asset allocation.
Economy:
The RBA opened the door to a pause in February and then delivered in March. The cash rate was held at 3.6% as the board assesses the global impact to financial conditions as well as awaiting further data on Australian inflation and the labour market in April. The bias remains for a further hike given inflation is above target. (GTM AUS page 55)
There is growing evidence that inflation has peaked in Australia as the monthly inflation reading fell to 6.8% year-over-year in February. While this data only captures around two thirds of the full quarterly inflation basket, the trajectory of price increase should be to the downside. (GTM AUS page 7)
One area of inflation pressure may be the housing market where data points towards a stabilization. Nationally, house prices rose 0.6% in March month-over-month, with stronger gain in the eastern capitals. However, the Westpac-Melbourne ‘Time to buy a home’ index fell 11% in March, its lowest level on record. (GTM AUS page 10)
The labour market remains tight. An additional 65,000 jobs were added in February, bringing the unemployment rate down to 3.5%. Tightness in the labour market is likely to persist as the labour supply is already strong and the participation rate elevated. (GTM AUS page 8)
Australia retail sales rose by 0.2% in February, a decline on the prior month. The data has been distorted over the summer, but a slowing trend is emerging.
The slowdown in consumption is reflected in the consumer sentiment index which was unchanged in March and hovers near historical lows. Business confidence also dipped in February. (GTM AUS page 5).
Click the link below for more.
Source and credit: JP Morgan
APPLICATIONS CLOSE FRIDAY, 30 JUNE 2023 AT 11.59 PM
The Rural Landholders Grant provides funding to help storm and flood-affected rural landholders and aquaculture farmers in eligible local government areas (LGAs) recover.
What do you get?
Funding of up to $25,000.
Who is this for?
NSW rural landholders and aquaculture farmers in eligible LGAs (see below).
Armidale, Ballina, Bellingen, Bayside, Bega Valley, Blacktown, Blue Mountains, Byron, Camden, Campbelltown, Canterbury Bankstown, Central Coast, Cessnock, Clarence Valley, Coffs Harbour, Cumberland, Dungog, Eurobodalla, Fairfield City, Georges River, Glen Innes, Goulburn-Mulwaree, Hawkesbury, Hornsby, Inner West, Kempsey, Kiama, Ku-ring-gai, Kyogle, Lismore, Lithgow, Liverpool, Maitland, Mid Coast, Mid-Western, Muswellbrook, Nambucca, Newcastle, Northern Beaches, Parramatta, Penrith, Port Macquarie-Hastings, Port Stephens, Queanbeyan-Palerang, Richmond Valley, Ryde, Shellharbour, Shoalhaven, Singleton, Snowy Monaro, Sutherland, Tenterfield, The Hills, Tweed, Upper Hunter, Wingecarribee, Wollondilly and Wollongong.
Overview
Funding is available to storm and flood-affected rural landholders and aquaculture farmers who do not qualify for existing programs because they do not meet the 50% of income from primary production requirement.
Eligible funding claims may include:
hiring or leasing equipment or materials to clean premises, property or equipment
removing and disposing of debris, damaged goods, materials including injured or dead livestock
repairing or replacing fencing and/or other essential property infrastructure
purchasing and transporting fodder or feed for livestock
replacing livestock
replacing lost or damaged plants, salvaging crops, repairing or restoring fields
replacing, reconditioning or replacing essential plant or equipment
maintaining the health of livestock
paying additional wages to an employee to assist with clean-up work (above and beyond normal wage expenditure, i.e. day-to-day staffing)
repairing buildings (except dwellings, unless they are used for staff accommodation).
Check if you can apply
To be eligible, you must:
be normally charged rates under the Local Land Services Act 2013 on a property of at least 10 hectares in size, or
hold a Class A Aquaculture Permit under the Fisheries Management Act 1984 authorising aquaculture lease area of at least 1 hectare.
Applicants must also:
not receive the majority of their income from primary production
be in a LGA declared as a natural disaster approved for this program
hold an Australian business number (ABN)
earn no more than $180,000 from gross off-farm income
not have gross off farm assets exceeding $5 million (excluding superannuation)
have been active in primary production at the time of the declared natural disaster event and plan to re-establish or continue the primary production enterprise
be able to demonstrate costs and proof of payment for clean-up activities, losses or damages from the disaster.
Source and credit: Business.gov.au
Posting make-up tutorials to social media? Writing for a blog or streaming gaming for others to see? You’re a content creator!
If you start making money from your online content, you’ll have income to declare, and you’ll need to consider whether you’re in business. If you are, or you want to start your own business, it’s important you know what income you need to report, the deductions you can claim, and what registrations you may need.
The income you receive could be:
cash
money for advertising or appearance fees
goods like a new gaming console, clothes, or make-up
from Australia, or overseas.
Some of your supporters may purchase your merchandise or pay a subscription fee to access your content. They may send tips or gratuities (often called gifts). All of these are considered income and should be declared.
There are some important things to think about if you’re a content creator.
Can you afford to accept the gifts? A new handbag or a free holiday may be enticing, but because it’s regarded as income, you’ll need to pay tax on it.
Consider how the income you earn will affect your other amounts payable. Sole trader income counts towards your total assessable income, so it could impact your study loans or Medicare calculation.
If you’re in business, and you have a GST turnover of $75,000 or more, you’ll need to register for GST. Make sure you keep your cash flow in mind when it comes to accepting goods or services – ask your tax professional or get help with the cash flow coaching kit.
You will be able to claim deductions for business related expenses, and you may also be eligible for small business concessions.
Source and credit: ATO.gov.au
The ATO is hosting a series of webinars on the benefits of small businesses adopting eInvoicing. Register now for the webinar coming up on 31 May.
eInvoicing is the new, safer, faster way to send and receive invoices directly through your system or software – ready to be approved and paid. This means no more manual entry, lost invoices, and fewer mistakes.
With eInvoicing:
suppliers don't need to print, post or email paper-based or PDF invoices
buyers don't need to manually enter or scan invoices into their software
businesses can connect once and immediately transact with everyone on the same network, no matter what eInvoicing-enabled software they use.
Come and hear from the ATO about why eInvoicing is the future and how it can save you time, money, and effort. As part of this presentation, the ATO will be showing demonstrations of eInvoicing in action by small business accounting software providers that have been assessed by them as eInvoicing ready.
Places fill quickly. Register now for the session 1:00 pm - 2.00 pm, Wednesday 31 May 2023 below.
Click the link below to find out more and register.
Source and credit: ATO.gov.au
We always like to support our locals! Here are some community events happening this month (in date order).
Join a community conversation next date is Tuesday, 2 May 2023 | 4:00 PM to 6:00 PM (to attend in person) or Wednesday, 10 May 2023 | 4:00 PM to 6:00 PM (online)
Come and discuss what Council projects and services are priorities for you.
Join a community conversation in-person or online.
Your feedback will inform the Draft Operational Plan and Budget for 2023 to 2024.
Register your attendance:
2 May 2023, 4.00 pm to 6.00 pm.
Register for the online Zoom session:
10 May 2023, 4.00 pm to 6.00 pm.
Location: Mullumbimby Ex Services Club, 58 Dalley Street, Mullumbimby
Byron Community Market next date is Sunday, 7 May 2023 | 8:00 AM to 3:00 PM
The Byron Bay Community Market hosts an eclectic collection of market stalls that showcase what Byron has to offer.
The market is held from 8:00 am to 3:00 pm on the 1st Sunday of every month.
Location: in the Byron Bay CBD, spreads along the rail corridor, Railway Park, and onto Jonson Street.
Mullumbimby Community Market next date is Saturday, 20 May 2023 | 8:00 AM to 2:00 PM
The Mullumbimby Community Market is held on the third Saturday of each month from 8 am to 2 pm.
Location: Corner of Stuarts and Myocum Streets, Mullumbimby
Bangalow Community Market next date is Sunday, 28 May 2023 | 8:00 AM to 2:30 PM
The Bangalow Market Day is a treat for day trippers, a retreat from the city and the rush of the Gold Coast. Bangalow is a window into another world.
The market is held from 8:00 am to 2:30 pm on the 4th Sunday of every month.
Location: Station Street, Bangalow
If you want to know more about what is going on in your local community, click the link below.
Source and credit: Byron.nsw.gov.au